Now we see a much more steady progression. That’s because taking longer-term averages actually reduces the effect of the noise without affecting the trend. But there’s still noise! By taking averages over longer time spans we don’t eliminate the noise, we just make it smaller."
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Global Warming is over?
Open Mind: "Another way to get a better picture of actual trends is by taking averages, not over very brief 1-year periods, but over longer stretches of time. Here’s the actual global average temperature (from NASA GISS) averaged over each 5-year interval (the last average is incomplete, since we haven’t yet finished the 2005-2010 interval):

Now we see a much more steady progression. That’s because taking longer-term averages actually reduces the effect of the noise without affecting the trend. But there’s still noise! By taking averages over longer time spans we don’t eliminate the noise, we just make it smaller."
Now we see a much more steady progression. That’s because taking longer-term averages actually reduces the effect of the noise without affecting the trend. But there’s still noise! By taking averages over longer time spans we don’t eliminate the noise, we just make it smaller."
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